Yes Bank Share Analysis 2025: From Crisis to Recovery

The Rise and Fall: A Dramatic Share Price Journey

2018 Peak: ₹400+ per share, reflecting aggressive growth and investor optimism
2025 Low: ₹16.02 (March), a catastrophic 95%+ wealth erosion
RBI moratorium in 2020 and arrest of founder Rana Kapoor marked a decisive turning point

Governance and Trust Crisis: The Core of the Collapse

Rana Kapoor’s tenure ended amid loan fraud and money laundering allegations
Gross NPAs peaked at 17.3% in 2020, destroying investor confidence
RBI-led bailout with SBI and HDFC Bank intervention stabilised operations
Despite recovery, governance scars continue to influence valuations

Financial Health Snapshot (2025)

        Market Capitalisation: ₹68,000+ crore
Current Price Range (Dec 2025): ₹21.5 – ₹24
Gross NPA: 1.6–1.7%
Net NPA: ~0.3%
Capital Adequacy Ratio: 17.2%
ROE: ~5.1% (still below industry leaders)

    

Recent Performance & Momentum

Q1 FY26 profit jumped 56.7% YoY to ₹808 crore
Loans & Advances grew 6.5% YoY to ₹2.5 trillion (Sept 2025)
Deposits increased 7.1% YoY to ₹2.97 trillion
Share price gained 18% in last 3 months
Trading near 52-week high of ₹24.3

Valuation & Market Sentiment

Current P/E: ~22.8
Price-to-Book (P/B): ~1.17
Intrinsic Value Estimates: ₹23 – ₹40
Median Fair Value: ~₹32
Trading at ~45% discount to intrinsic value
No promoter share pledging

Competitive Landscape: Yes Bank vs Peers

Net Interest Margin: Yes Bank 2.1% vs HDFC Bank 4.2%
ROE: Yes Bank 5.1% vs HDFC Bank 15.8%
Market Cap: Yes Bank ~₹68,000 Cr vs HDFC Bank ~₹1.26 lakh Cr
Still rebuilding brand trust compared to stronger peers

Strategic Boost: SMFG Investment

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) acquired 24.22% stake (Sept 2025)
Largest cross-border investment in an Indian private bank
Strengthens capital base and governance credibility
RBI approval and credit rating upgrades by CRISIL & Moody’s

Technical Outlook & Risks

Stock forming a symmetrical triangle pattern
Breakout above ₹24 may trigger rally towards ₹26.5
Key support near ₹22
RSI at 55.7 indicates neutral momentum
Risks: ED probes, legacy governance concerns, macroeconomic volatility

Conclusion: Cautious Optimism for Investors

Yes Bank has clearly moved from survival to recovery mode, supported by improving asset quality, stable deposits, and strategic foreign investment. However, profitability metrics still lag top-tier peers.

Investor View: Suitable for high-risk, turnaround-focused investors. Conservative investors should wait for sustained ROE improvement.

Close monitoring of quarterly earnings, management execution, and governance developments is essential before taking large exposure.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock markets are subject to risk. Please consult a registered financial advisor before investing.